انجمن جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی ایران توسعه فضاهای پیراشهری 2676-4164 8 2 2026 04 21 Identifying Key Factors Affecting the Decline of Seismic Resilience in Urban Peripheral Areas with an Emphasis on Urban Growth and Development Dimensions (Case Study: Bojnord) شناسایی عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر کاهش تاب‌آوری لرزه‌ای مناطق پیراشهری با تأکید بر ابعاد رشد و توسعه شهری (مورد مطالعه: بجنورد) 230710 10.22034/jpusd.2025.541625.1364 FA صادق خانی کوشکی دانشجوی دکتری گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد شیروان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیروان، ایران 0009-0009-0441-073X رمضانعلی نادری مایوان استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه کوثر بجنورد، بجنورد، ایران. 0000-0003-3467-8584 فرزاد قادری بافتی استادیار گروه مدیریت ساخت، واحد شیروان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیروان، ایران. 0000-0002-5334-5331 Journal Article 2025 08 16 Introduction The urban peripheral areas of Bojnord face increasing challenges in seismic resilience due to urban growth and development. This study provides a comprehensive examination of the factors influencing this resilience, with a focus on various dimensions of urban expansion. The primary objective is to develop a deeper understanding of existing complexities and identify pathways for improving conditions in these areas. Bojnord, the capital of North Khorasan Province, has experienced significant urban development in recent years. However, this rapid and often unplanned expansion marked by scattered construction that disregards engineering safety standards has increased the seismic vulnerability of areas near active faults. The city’s aging infrastructure, largely composed of traditional, non-reinforced materials that fail to meet modern seismic codes, is particularly at risk, especially in fault-adjacent zones where earthquakes could cause severe human and economic losses. Compounding the problem, uncontrolled urban sprawl and illegal construction on the city’s outskirts have left entire neighborhoods without resilient infrastructure or safety-compliant buildings, amplifying potential disaster impacts. Another critical issue is the lack of open spaces and safe gathering points, which are vital for emergency shelter and protection during crises a shortfall with potentially catastrophic consequences in high-risk areas. Further concerns arise from vulnerable critical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, water systems, and telecommunications), which lack adequate reinforcement and could fail post-disaster. Public awareness and training on earthquake preparedness are also insufficient, with the absence of systematic educational programs exacerbating the city’s fragility. Addressing these challenges requires smart urban planning, seismic retrofitting of buildings, infrastructure upgrades, and community training. Key solutions include renovating dilapidated structures, enforcing construction standards for new builds (particularly near fault lines), and strategically developing open spaces and emergency hubs to mitigate risks. Ultimately, Bojnord’s urban growth must align with comprehensive resilience strategies to safeguard its residents. This study seeks to identify the key factors undermining seismic resilience in Bojnord’s Peripheral Areas, emphasizing urban development dimensions. The findings could inform policymaking, infrastructure improvements, and public awareness campaigns—paving the way for a safer, more disaster-resistant city. Methodology This research is an applied qualitative study conducted through a descriptive-analytical survey approach. Data was collected via documentary and library research, as well as field interviews with 35 managers and experts in Bojnord County (using purposive sampling until theoretical saturation was achieved). Data analysis was performed using grounded theory (Strauss and Corbin’s approach), involving open, axial, and selective coding stages. The 60 to 90-minute interviews were recorded, transcribed, and categorized using a paradigmatic model (causal, contextual, and intervening factors) to derive a data-driven theory. Results and discussion The results revealed that the decline in seismic resilience in Bojnord suburbs is influenced by three key factors: causal factors (such as migration, fear of property devaluation, and local tensions), contextual factors (including non-resistant traditional architecture, active faults, and lack of infrastructure investment), and intervening factors (such as managerial and executive weaknesses, as well as shortcomings in crisis management). These factors interact simultaneously in a networked manner, collectively undermining the seismic stability of these areas. Therefore, enhancing Bojnord seismic resilience requires comprehensive and coordinated planning across social, cultural, economic, managerial, and infrastructural dimensions. Conclusion This study comprehensively and meticulously uncovers the root causes behind the decline in seismic resilience in Bojnord urban peripheral areas. The results clearly demonstrate that this complex issue stems from deep-seated social, psychological, managerial, economic, and even cultural factors transcending any single dimension. Causal factors reveal that the problems originate from within Bojnord societal fabric. Rural-urban migration has fragmented the social structure and deepened generational divides. Psychological barriers, such as the normalization of earthquake risks and fears of property devaluation, deter residents from retrofitting buildings. Declining public participation and the absence of active civil organizations have eroded social capital, nearly eliminating community oversight. Even local political tensions over budget allocations exacerbate the situation. Together, these elements have created a perilous foundation for seismic vulnerability. Contextual factors highlight historical and geographical predispositions to this fragility. Traditional architecture and a fatalistic attitude toward natural disasters, combined with Bojnord location in a border region atop active faults, double the threat. Inadequate investment in resilient infrastructure and reliance on limited industries further undermine material and economic resilience. Cultural and psychological issues like risk denial and the spread of misinformation—fuel public apathy and unpreparedness. Intervening factors expose systemic failures: even with problem awareness, managerial weaknesses, bureaucratic hurdles, and political challenges obstruct effective solutions. Institutional fragmentation, lax oversight, inefficient crisis management, and a shortage of skilled personnel pose critical barriers to progress. Elite turnover and misguided political priorities further derail long-term resilience programs. This multilayered crisis demands integrated action bridging social cohesion, infrastructure modernization, policy reform, and public education to transform Bojnord into a seismically resilient city. Only by addressing these intertwined dimensions can meaningful, sustainable progress be achieved. Funding According to the responsible author, this article has no financial support Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. مناطق پیراشهری بجنورد به دلیل رشد و توسعه شهری، با چالش‌های فزاینده‌ای در زمینه تاب‌آوری لرزه‌ای روبرو هستند. این مطالعه به بررسی جامع عوامل مؤثر بر این تاب‌آوری، با تأکید بر ابعاد مختلف رشد و توسعه شهری، می‌پردازد. هدف اصلی، ارائه درکی عمیق از پیچیدگی‌های موجود و تعیین مسیرهایی برای بهبود وضعیت در این مناطق است. این پژوهش یک مطالعه کاربردی با رویکرد کیفی است که به روش پیمایشی توصیفی-تحلیلی انجام شده است. داده‌ها از طریق مطالعات اسنادی، کتابخانه‌ای و مصاحبه‌های میدانی با ۳۵ نفر از مدیران و متخصصان شهرستان بجنورد (به روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند تا رسیدن به اشباع نظری) گردآوری شد. تحلیل داده‌ها با روش گراندد تئوری (نسخه استراوس و کوربین) انجام شد که شامل مراحل کدگذاری باز، محوری و انتخابی بود. مصاحبه‌های ۶۰ تا ۹۰ دقیقه‌ای ضبط، پیاده‌سازی و با الگوی پارادایمی (علّی، زمینه‌ای، مداخله‌گر) دسته‌بندی شدند تا نظریه‌ای مبتنی بر داده‌ها استخراج شود. نتایج نشان داد که کاهش تاب‌آوری لرزه‌ای مناطق پیراشهری بجنورد تحت تأثیر سه دسته عوامل کلیدی قرار دارد: عوامل علی (مانند مهاجرت، ترس از کاهش ارزش ملک و تنش‌های محلی)، عوامل زمینه‌ای (شامل معماری سنتی غیرمقاوم، گسل‌های فعال و عدم سرمایه‌گذاری در زیرساخت‌ها) و عوامل مداخله‌گر (نظیر ضعف‌های مدیریتی، اجرایی و مشکلات در مدیریت بحران). این عوامل به صورت شبکه‌ای و همزمان عمل کرده و به تضعیف پایداری لرزه‌ای این مناطق منجر شده‌اند. بنابراین، بهبود تاب‌آوری لرزه‌ای بجنورد نیازمند برنامه‌ریزی جامع و هماهنگ در ابعاد اجتماعی، فرهنگی، اقتصادی، مدیریتی و زیرساختی است.