This research, employing the DEMATEL (Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) structural analysis method, has meticulously and systematically investigated the factors influencing the formation and persistence of informal settlements in Mashhad County. Key findings reveal that the core of the problems in these areas stems from a set of powerful causal factors that exert the most significant influence on other dimensions, continuously feeding the vicious cycle of poverty, deprivation, and vulnerability. At the forefront of these causal factors is the phenomenon of migration from rural and less developed areas to the metropolis of Mashhad (C7). These migrations, often undertaken in pursuit of better employment and economic opportunities, place immense pressure on urban infrastructure, particularly in housing and services, leading to the emergence of settlements lacking proper permits and standards. Another prominent causal factor is poverty and economic deprivation (C12), which is directly linked to residents’ ability to access adequate housing, healthcare, education, and sustainable employment opportunities. Poverty itself arises from factors such as unemployment, low wages, and a lack of necessary skills, hindering improvements in livelihood and quality of life. Alongside these socio-economic factors, violence and insecurity (C13) have also been identified as impactful causal factors. This insecurity can encompass crime, local disputes, and a lack of psychological safety, which in turn impedes investment, the development of local businesses, and even the active presence of service and oversight institutions. Furthermore, inadequate public health (C14), including insufficient access to safe drinking water, standard wastewater disposal systems, and basic healthcare services, constitutes another fundamental pillar of problems in these settlements, directly affecting residents’ physical and mental health and increasing healthcare costs. These causal factors, interconnected like a chain, not only lead to the formation of informal settlements but also ensure their survival and expansion.



Key Findings and Practical Recommendations:



Conversely, factors such as housing quality and safety (C2), housing location (C3), and education quality (C11) are predominantly categorized as effect factors. This implies that the status of these factors is largely a function of broader economic and social conditions, as well as access to infrastructure and services. For instance, poor housing quality directly results from economic poverty and the inability to afford standard construction. Inappropriate location is often due to limitations in accessing urban land, forcing settlement in marginalized and underserved areas. Similarly, the low quality of education in these regions is itself a consequence of factors like parental poverty, limited access to quality schools, and the need for students to assist families with economic activities. Understanding this distinction between causal and effect factors is crucial for designing and implementing effective interventions. The intervention strategy must primarily focus on “addressing the root causes,” meaning we should first concentrate on strengthening and improving the primary causal factors to achieve a ripple effect on the effect factors. Accordingly, the research’s main practical recommendations are based on the following : 1. Strengthening Sustainable Socio-Economic Programs: This includes creating productive and stable employment opportunities, supporting micro and home-based businesses, providing vocational training tailored to market needs, and facilitating access to support services and finance for economic empowerment of residents. 2. Significant Improvement of Health and Medical Services: Substantial investment in developing health infrastructure, including ensuring safe drinking water, improving wastewater disposal systems, waste management, and expanding primary healthcare centers in these areas, is a vital priority. 3. Enhancing Housing Quality and Safety: Providing construction facilities, technical training for improving construction methods, and supporting the retrofitting of existing housing can contribute to enhancing living safety and quality. 4. Increasing Security and Social Justice: Establishing a more visible and effective presence of law enforcement and security agencies in a manner that enhances residents’ sense of trust and security, coupled with social programs to reduce social harms and foster local solidarity, is essential. 5. Developing and Improving Educational Services: Investing in the quality of education, including providing school equipment school equipment, attracting experienced teachers, and offering supplementary and extracurricular educational programs, is key to breaking the cycle of poverty and enhancing human capital in the long term. Implementing a comprehensive and multifaceted approach that addresses root causes while leveraging existing capacities within the local community will be the only sustainable solution for tackling the challenges of informal settlements in Mashhad.