Introduction

The patterns of spatial changes in peri-urban areas are an intertwined relationship between two relatively different areas of socio-economic structures (forces and mechanisms) and spatial structure (historical-geographic context). The discovery of this relationship enables a better understanding of the process and mechanisms related to the formation of peri-urban areas and their spatial changes in the context of the rentier economy. In explaining the problem of peri-urban areas, a major part of the analysis follows the urban political economy literature common in the 1960s and 1970s, due to the existence of the capitalist and global system, and its consequences such as the destruction and destruction of agriculture and villages and of course Recession and migration to cities have been mentioned. The study area of the current research is Ardabil city. The emergence of the first urban phenomenon in Ardabil province and the unbridled expansion of Ardabil city (especially after it became a province in 1372) based on the demands and needs of the urban society, led to wide-ranging transformations and transformations in various areas of the life of some villages in the region. has had its influence. The rapid growth of the population of Ardabil and the consequent increase in the demand for housing and more constructions has caused the physical expansion of the city. Responding to this demand has generally been done through changing the use of agricultural lands around the city and even nearby villages, in other words, digesting the villages and converting rural lands into residential uses. What we are witnessing here is the unplanned and thoughtless growth of land use both within the official boundaries of the city and in the rural settlements of the sphere of influence. The increase in rural-urban migrations and the lack of proper control and supervision to these areas in the absence of comprehensive and upstream plans have led to the unbalanced physical development of the villages around the city of Ardabil. Therefore, the most important question of the current research is: 1- What are the most important drivers affecting the future of Ardabil's peri-urban areas in physical-spatial dimensions? 2- What are the most important possible scenarios for the future of the peri-urban areas of Ardabil?

Methodology

The current research is of an applied type and in terms of its method, it is descriptive-analytical, in line with the basics of future studies, with an exploratory approach (viewing the past and present, in order to know the future) and analyzing the state of physical-spatial developments in the peri-urban areas of Ardabil. . In this regard, data collection was based on the Delphi technique in a documentary and survey manner. Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software were used for data analysis.

Results and discussion

In the current research, considering that the aim is to identify the most important determining and influencing factors in the physical-spatial developments of the peri-urban areas of Ardabil, among the influential variables (because they are the most influential factors), risk variables (because they have a high potential to be among system influencing variables) and regulatory variables (which can be converted into risk variables and secondary goals) are used as the most important determining factors, which total 16 key factors. After identifying the most important factors, various situations (probable situations related to key factors) about the physical-spatial developments of the peri-urban areas of Ardabil with a political economy approach are included. The number of these situations is designed according to the conditions of each factor. In fact, these situations related to each of the factors as a perspective of the physical-spatial situation of the peri-urban areas of Ardabil should be raised and likely to occur. Finally, 36 possible situations for the future of the physical-spatial developments of the peri-urban areas of Ardabil were drawn with the economic-political approach of space, of which 15 possible situations are favorable; 8 possible situations are static and 13 possible situations are critical.

Conclusion

According to the obtained results, it shows the instability of the system, it is better to take the initial measures in order to solve the critical situations according to the key drivers, so that the system moves towards stability and balance, and to extract possible future scenarios of the physical-spatial developments of peri-urban areas. Ardabil 16 key factors were extracted. These 16 factors include key variables (4 items); There are risk variables (7 items) and regulatory variables (5 items), and basically, out of 53 variables, 16 variables were found to be the most important driver variables affecting the future of Ardabil's peri-urban areas in physical-spatial dimensions. 5 scenarios with high compatibility were obtained, the first scenario shows the trend of positive influence and the fifth scenario shows the trend of negative influence, and these two scenarios had a high compatibility score among the other 5 scenarios. Looking at and establishing productive activities and increasing productivity in various areas in peri-urban areas, strengthening public institutions and facilitating private sector investment, directing capital towards economic and job-creating activities, bottom-up planning is among the highest values of adaptability. Related to the key factors in the future are physical-spatial changes in the peri-urban areas of Ardabil.



Key words: physical-spatial changes; political economy of space; peri-urban areas; Future studies