Introduction

Rapid population growth, urbanization, and increased construction in recent decades have changed the spatial and economic structure of many rural settlements. One of the most important consequences of this trend is the change in the use of agricultural and horticultural lands. The increase in land prices in villages, although it may be profitable for landowners, has significant consequences for the livelihoods of non-landowner villagers, tenant farmers, and seasonal workers. Many farmers, under pressure from land prices and the lack of appropriate government support, are forced to abandon production activities and move to unstable jobs or migrate to cities. This trend has led to a decrease in the human resource active in the agricultural sector, the abandonment of land, and an increase in the import of agricultural products. In such circumstances, land has become not only a source of agricultural production, but also a capital good and a tool for speculation, which is in conflict with the concepts of food security, rural livelihood sustainability, and sustainable rural development. Similar conditions are observed in Iran, which doubles the need for a scientific study of the effects of rising land prices on the livelihood structure of rural communities.

Methodology

The geographical area of study of the present study is the Sorkhroud district of Mahmoudabad city in Mazandaran province. This district is located on the southern coastal strip of the Caspian Sea and has a special geographical and climatic location that has made it one of the regions with high potential for agriculture, tourism, and investment in real estate.

The present study is applied in terms of its purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and method. The aim of this study is to investigate the multidimensional consequences of increasing agricultural land prices on the decline in the livelihoods of villagers in the Sorkhroud district of Mahmoudabad city. This study was conducted using structural equation modeling (SEM) to measure the causal relationships between latent and observable variables with greater accuracy. The statistical population of the study included all heads of households living in the villages of Sorkhroud district of Mahmoudabad city, which have faced the phenomenon of increasing land prices and extensive changes in land use in recent years. The Cochran formula was used to determine the sample size, and considering time and resource constraints, about 200 valid questionnaires were finally collected and analyzed. The main data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire that was designed based on theoretical studies, the conceptual model of the study, and the analysis of previous findings. The questionnaire of this study included two parts: demographic questions (age, education, type of land ownership, residence history, and type of livelihood activity) and measuring latent variables of the conceptual model (social, economic, physical, environmental consequences, and the livelihood level of villagers). To assess content validity, the questionnaire was provided to professors in the fields of rural development and agricultural extension and education, and necessary amendments were made. The reliability of the questionnaire was examined using Cronbach's alpha, which was reported to be higher than 0.7 for all constructs, indicating appropriate reliability of the instrument. In this study, the collected data were first subjected to descriptive analysis (mean, standard deviation, percentages, and frequencies) using SPSSV29 software. Then, to test the hypotheses and examine the structure of the relationships between variables, equation modeling was used with the help of PLS3.5 software.



Results and discussion

The findings of this study showed that the increase in agricultural land prices had the greatest impact on the decline in the livelihoods of villagers in the Sorkhroud region through economic consequences. The impact coefficient of 0.437 for this dimension indicates that the growth in the value of land as a capital good has transformed the agricultural production structure and has weakened the economic foundations of rural households by creating economic inequalities, reducing investment in production, and increasing living costs. In the social dimension, the findings of this study indicated a significant impact of social consequences (β=0.261) on the decline in livelihoods. Factors such as the migration of indigenous forces, weakening social relations, increasing the gap between landowners and landless people, and changing traditional lifestyles are examples of the social consequences of land price changes. Regarding physical consequences, although its impact was lower compared to other dimensions (β=0.195), it is still considered significant and important. The spread of unprincipled construction, changes in the physical appearance of the village, and the destruction of agricultural infrastructure are some of these consequences. One of the noteworthy points in this study was the lack of significance of environmental consequences in the statistical model (β=0.013, p=0.855). Although it was expected that the reduction of water resources, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss would also directly affect livelihoods, the respondents' perception of these issues was not very strong.



Conclusion

According to the results, the increase in the price of agricultural land has become, beyond a purely economic phenomenon, a multidimensional and structurally disruptive factor in rural life. It was determined that the strongest impact of the increase in land prices on the decline in rural livelihoods is exerted through its economic consequences; including reduced investment in the production sector, increased living costs, a decline in agricultural profitability, and an exacerbation of the gap between different rural strata. In addition, social and physical consequences were also among the factors affecting the weakening of the livelihood structure. The lack of direct impact of environmental consequences in this study should not be considered as its lack of importance, but can be explained more by the time delay in the emergence of environmental effects and the dim environmental perception among respondents. These results are in line with national and international studies, and all emphasize that the increase in land prices without intelligent and controlled policies will become a threat to the sustainability of rural settlements, food security, and social balance in rural areas.