Introduction

Informal settlements, as the main symbol of less developed urban areas, are the physical manifestation of socio-economic inequality in an urban area. Informal settlement is a global phenomenon and the reasons for its formation are diverse and numerous and vary from place to place. Studies on the context and causes of the emergence of informal settlements indicate inequality in economic, social, managerial and environmental variables. Marginalization exacerbates duality in urban society, increases class distance and many other problems, as the residents of these areas are mainly rural migrants and urban poor who do not have the necessary skills and expertise to be absorbed into the urban economic cycle. With this in mind, it can be said that the issue of informal settlements is not a temporary issue with limited dimensions, and there is no agreement on its survival, reproduction, and expansion, and addressing it is not only a necessity arising from religious and human values, but also consistent with social interests and the sustainability of settlements and national development, and we should not forget that poverty is a threat to the whole everywhere. Ardabil is one of the cities where informal settlements are one of the important issues of this city. Meanwhile, one of the important factors in the creation of these settlements can be considered the underdevelopment of villages and the factor of increasing migration and the creation of informal settlements

.Methodology

The required data and information were obtained from two methods: library and field. To examine the theoretical foundations, the desired dimensions and indicators in the field of informal settlements were collected. In the field method, the Delphi method and various questionnaires were used to complete the information. The Delphi panel members were selected as 25 qualified individuals. In order to extract important factors, a questionnaire was provided to the panel members in the first round, and in the second stage, they were selected based on the integration of existing variables and proposed variables. In the next stage, in order to analyze the data within the framework of the cross-effects matrix, the variables were scored, taking into account the influence of rows on columns. In the last stage, using the Mikmak software and entering the cross-matrix numbers into the software, they were evaluated and analyzed based on the calculations performed by the software, and the variables were identified..

Results and discussion

The expansion of informal settlements is a phenomenon that is the result of a complex and multi-level interaction between a set of economic, social, managerial and spatial factors. In this way, this phenomenon has not arisen due to the activity or influence of a single factor. Marginalization is actually a result of poverty, and most of the people who live in these areas are economically and socially at a low level of standard, and the environment in which they live also depends on the living standards of these people and has a low social and even infrastructure standard. Based on the results of the present study, it was determined that the drivers of the expansion of settlements in the city of Ardabil are in the form of variables that can be examined from the macro level to the regional level. The inefficiency of government programs, lack of funding, and inflation are major issues that can be the main factors in the expansion of informal settlements not only in Ardabil but also in all cities of Iran. In addition to these issues, variables such as land speculation and immigration are also regional issues that have had an effect on informal settlements even at the provincial level. Considering the current conditions for the expansion of informal settlements in Ardabil, it seems that there are no favorable conditions on the outskirts of the city and there are numerous neighborhoods with unfavorable and critical conditions, which can cause numerous socio-economic damages in the long term.

Conclusion

The results of this study, which uses a futures research approach to identify and analyze the drivers affecting the expansion of informal settlements in Ardabil, show that out of the 37 variables examined in this study, 10 variables play a prominent role as key drivers in the expansion of informal settlements in Ardabil, based on the output of the MiqMaq software. The weakness of the urban management structure as a key driver, with its inefficiency in effectively supervising land use, controlling construction, and directing investment towards balanced development, has paved the way for the expansion of unauthorized construction and the concentration of the population on the outskirts. This management weakness, in line with the inefficiency of government programs, lack of funds, and weak supportive laws, has caused official policies to be unable to control the process of formation and expansion of informal settlements. Meanwhile, migration to Ardabil city, especially after it became the provincial capital in the 1970s, especially from rural areas and small towns, which is mainly due to differences in job opportunities and urban services, has placed additional pressure on the city's existing capacities and, along with population growth, has greatly increased the demand for cheap housing.